Pre-tourney Rankings
North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2011-12
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.0#43
Expected Predictive Rating+9.4#46
Pace71.1#88
Improvement+1.6#99

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#34
Improvement-2.1#269

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#89
Improvement+3.7#31
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.7% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.7% n/a n/a
Average Seed 11.5 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four37.0% n/a n/a
First Round52.4% n/a n/a
Second Round19.5% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen6.7% n/a n/a
Elite Eight1.6% n/a n/a
Final Four0.4% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.1% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 11 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2011 122   UNC Asheville W 84-75 81%     1 - 0 +8.7 -1.9 +9.6
  Nov 13, 2011 203   Morehead St. W 91-61 90%     2 - 0 +24.6 +21.6 +4.9
  Nov 16, 2011 99   Princeton W 60-58 76%     3 - 0 +3.5 -6.0 +9.7
  Nov 19, 2011 13   Vanderbilt L 79-86 31%     3 - 1 +7.0 +6.7 +0.7
  Nov 21, 2011 25   Texas W 77-74 40%     4 - 1 +14.6 +10.9 +3.8
  Nov 25, 2011 261   Elon W 82-67 95%     5 - 1 +5.6 +2.1 +3.1
  Nov 30, 2011 8   Indiana L 75-86 39%     5 - 2 +0.9 -0.6 +2.2
  Dec 04, 2011 64   @ Stanford L 72-76 43%     5 - 3 +6.8 +4.4 +2.5
  Dec 11, 2011 222   NC Central W 65-60 92%     6 - 3 -1.7 -6.4 +4.9
  Dec 17, 2011 7   Syracuse L 72-88 32%     6 - 4 -2.2 +11.2 -14.5
  Dec 20, 2011 57   St. Bonaventure W 67-65 54%     7 - 4 +10.1 +3.8 +6.5
  Dec 22, 2011 200   Northeastern W 88-59 90%     8 - 4 +23.7 +16.0 +8.5
  Dec 29, 2011 245   Campbell W 87-81 94%     9 - 4 -2.2 +5.8 -8.1
  Dec 31, 2011 234   Western Carolina W 82-55 93%     10 - 4 +19.3 +3.0 +16.0
  Jan 04, 2012 242   Delaware St. W 78-44 93%     11 - 4 +26.0 +5.5 +23.0
  Jan 08, 2012 125   Maryland W 79-74 81%     12 - 4 1 - 0 +4.5 +1.2 +3.1
  Jan 11, 2012 170   Georgia Tech L 71-82 88%     12 - 5 1 - 1 -14.6 -2.5 -11.8
  Jan 14, 2012 195   @ Wake Forest W 76-40 76%     13 - 5 2 - 1 +37.6 +4.2 +33.8
  Jan 19, 2012 252   Boston College W 76-62 94%     14 - 5 3 - 1 +5.2 -2.8 +7.4
  Jan 22, 2012 41   @ Miami (FL) W 78-73 36%     15 - 5 4 - 1 +17.8 +4.7 +12.8
  Jan 26, 2012 4   @ North Carolina L 55-74 12%     15 - 6 4 - 2 +3.0 -8.6 +12.1
  Jan 28, 2012 31   Virginia L 60-61 56%     15 - 7 4 - 3 +6.5 +2.8 +3.6
  Feb 01, 2012 252   @ Boston College W 56-51 85%     16 - 7 5 - 3 +3.0 -2.6 +6.8
  Feb 04, 2012 195   Wake Forest W 87-76 90%     17 - 7 6 - 3 +5.8 +15.4 -9.1
  Feb 09, 2012 170   @ Georgia Tech W 61-52 71%     18 - 7 7 - 3 +12.2 +0.0 +13.3
  Feb 16, 2012 15   @ Duke L 73-78 21%     18 - 8 7 - 4 +12.3 -0.3 +13.1
  Feb 18, 2012 22   Florida St. L 62-76 49%     18 - 9 7 - 5 -4.7 -6.4 +2.3
  Feb 21, 2012 4   North Carolina L 74-86 28%     18 - 10 7 - 6 +3.2 +10.8 -8.1
  Feb 25, 2012 82   @ Clemson L 69-72 OT 49%     18 - 11 7 - 7 +6.4 +2.0 +4.4
  Feb 29, 2012 41   Miami (FL) W 77-73 61%     19 - 11 8 - 7 +10.0 +7.9 +2.3
  Mar 04, 2012 80   @ Virginia Tech W 70-58 48%     20 - 11 9 - 7 +21.5 +6.4 +15.8
  Mar 08, 2012 252   Boston College W 78-57 90%     21 - 11 +15.6 +0.4 +14.1
  Mar 09, 2012 31   Virginia W 67-64 43%     22 - 11 +13.9 +10.0 +4.2
  Mar 10, 2012 4   North Carolina L 67-69 18%     22 - 12 +16.6 -1.1 +17.7
Projected Record 22.0 - 12.0 9.0 - 7.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 100.0% 69.7% 69.7% 11.5 0.1 0.7 6.7 26.7 31.3 4.2 0.0 30.3 69.7%
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 69.7% 0.0% 69.7% 11.5 0.1 0.7 6.7 26.7 31.3 4.2 0.0 30.3 69.7%